October 4, 2015

  • Asshat Numbers

    So the Russians have joined the war in Syria.  We are amazed that anyone could side with Bashir al Assad in this dispute, but Putin has never felt constrained to appear reasonable.  The numbers are plainly unfavorable to Assad.
    Asshat2a

      Every year of the conflict has seen an exponential growth in refugees.  In 2012, there were 100,000 refugees.  By April 2013, there were 800,000.  That doubled to 1.6 million in less than four months.  There are now four million Syrians scattered throughout the region, making them the world's largest refugee population under the United Nations' mandate.

      At this rate, the U.N. predicts there could be 4.27 million Syrian refugees by the end of 2015 —- the worst exodus since the Rwandan genocide 20 years ago.  SOURCE  And this estimate was made before the present air campaign.

    4.27 million is a major portion of Syria's total population.

    What proportion is that, we might ask?  The population of Syria in 2007 was 18,881,361  (I retrieved this number from my study of the 2008 olympics.)

    So the proportion is 4.27 / 18.88 * 100 = 22.62%, which means about two Syrians in nine are refugees.  For reasons mentioned above, it is a low ball estimate.  In fact, if Russia continues its current trajectory, some EU analysts project, we may see a doubling of the number of refugees within a year.

    I rest my case.  We do not have to know which of the 29 different rebel factions support ISIS or Iran or are actual terrorists.  We only have to look at the above proportion to know that Assad is a true Asshat.